Is a deadly pandemic about to hit us, or is the biggest quarantine effort in human history, locking down many cities in China, an overreaction?
There are now five confirmed cases of coronavirus in the U.S., all associated with travel to China, and about 100 more are under investigation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is at present the only source for diagnostic testing.
Where did the novel virus, called 2019-nCoV, come from? Reportedly, the source was the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, which also offers exotic fresh meat, some from live animals. A bat or other animal virus may have mutated and crossed the species barrier to humans. However, according to a study of 41 patients hospitalized in Wuhan, published in The Lancet, 13 of the 41 had no link to the market, which was closed Jan 1. Human-to-human transmission is surely occurring.
There is speculation that the virus might have been accidentally released from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, located 20 miles from the seafood market. The laboratory is the only declared site in China capable of working with deadly viruses. China is suspected to have a covert biological warfare program.
Recall that in 1979 an outbreak of anthrax in the Soviet Union, originally attributed to tainted meat, was eventually shown to have originated from a biowarfare facility at Sverdlovsk.
Whether bioengineered by nature or by scientists, novel microorganisms for which there is no immunity and no treatment could kill hundreds of millions of humans if not contained.
Virologists and epidemiologists are racing to answer basic questions. How contagious is 2019-nCoV? Can it be transmitted by people who have no fever and no symptoms—and for how long? What is the mortality rate?
Previous threats, such as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and Ebola, have been contained. But despite these wake-up calls, the U.S. is no better prepared for a lethal pandemic than it was for the great influenza in 1918, according to Dr. Steven Hatfill and coauthors in their new book Three Seconds until Midnight. We lack adequate stockpiles of protective gear, surge capacity in medical facilities and personnel, preparedness to maintain essential infrastructure, and efficient distribution mechanisms for vaccines or drugs if they exist.
Also essential is accurate, timely, uncensored information. A big unknown is the reliability of information on the internet or from government, especially in closed societies such as China. Citizens need to practice meticulous hygiene and avoid sources of exposure.
For further information, see Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Newsletter, September 2019, and self-help sources recommended in Three Seconds until Midnight by Steven Hatfill, M.D., et al.