Civil Defense Perspectives- January 2022 (vol. 37 #1)
Winning office partly because of the promise to control the COVID-19 pandemic, Joe Biden unveiled his “new” initiatives on Dec 21, 2021 (tinyurl.com/4furne33). These include 500 million free rapid tests, support for overstressed hospitals, and more pressure to vaccinate and boost. Biden said it was a “patriotic duty” to get vaccinated, and warned of a winter of “severe illness and death” for the unvaccinated.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, we would need 2.3 billion tests per month to test every person over age 12 twice per week. Biden promised an additional 1,000 troops to hospitals—Mayo alone just fired 700 unvaccinated workers. How many boosters? A second one is already being discussed.
Though Biden promised there would not be a mass federal lockdown of schools and businesses, there’s a storm of masking and distancing requirements, de-facto vaccination passports, and termination of noncompliant workers, implemented by states, local jurisdictions, universities, and businesses. Biden is not backing down on federal vaccination mandates.
It seems like 2020-2021 all over again, only worse, with the addition of the Great Resignation and terminations due to jab resistance. And how has the test, isolate, exclude, fire, jab and re-jab method worked so far? Are we testing Einstein’s definition of insanity, replaying the same act expecting different results?
And who is in charge? The very same team that got us to where we are, under the titular leadership of 81-year-old Anthony Fauci, with the same FDA, CDC, and NIH bureaucracies and their entanglements with Big Pharma and immensely wealthy internationalist nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Errors, omissions, contradictions, suppression of dissent, and outright lies are constant features. Trust has been utterly betrayed.
What Kind of Test?
What will be tested? Saliva, supposedly better for Omicron, or nasal swabs, better for Delta (tinyurl.com/3whbdz8a)? (These tests won’t identify the variant—this requires a complete sequencing, which is done on a statistical sample to estimate prevalence in an area.) Some swabs used by U.S. military are reportedly contaminated with lethal bacteria.
What testing method? An antigen test, like in most home test kits, or a PCR test (polymerase chain reaction)? If a PCR, what cycle threshold? This detail is not provided with test results, although a Ct > 28 is almost never associated with infectious material (https://tinyurl.com/2p8dccw9).
How accurate is the test? This is unknown, and varies greatly with the prevalence of disease (see p2). A pathologist, asked whether the predictive value of a positive or negative test was known for any of the tests, replied: No. There are false positives and false negatives, but we don’t know how frequent they are.
How long do tests remain positive after recovery? That’s another unknown—possibly for life. Might we repeatedly test and isolate people who are already immune? Almost certainly.
Biden will not be distributing free antibody tests. These do not diagnose acute illness because antibodies take time to develop, but are evidence of recovery. Even after they wane, as they normally do, people retain the memory T-cells that initiate a rapid response to reinfection. You can order a test at T-detect.com. The Biden regime is refusing to recognize evidence of natural recovery as an exemption to vaccine mandates, asserting that the vaccine will strengthen the immunity—despite compelling evidence that natural immunity is superior (tinyurl.com/2p8jy42p).
Overwhelmed Hospitals
Why are hospitals full? Have they reduced their capacity by firing dedicated staff for declining COVID-19 vaccine even if immune? Did they have to downsize for lack of revenue due to “reserving” empty facilities for the surge that never arrived? One academic center is now crippling its specialized surgery residency training program by forbidding elective surgery, to keep the surgery ICU available even though its patients never need ICU care.
An Ohio physician reports that “help” from the National Guard is simply causing chaos. Qualified skilled professionals are being removed and replaced with clueless, untrained big-government workers. The nurses are all outsourced and do 12-hour shifts and are off to another state the next day. All patients are highly endangered by third-world quality care, she states.
Are hospitals full of unvaccinated COVID-19 victims as Biden claims? Or are ERs deluged with cardiac and neurologic reactions in patients who had their jab less than 2 weeks ago and are hence defined as “unvaccinated,” as claimed by ER staff who must remain nameless to protect their jobs? Statistics from the UK and Israel show that vaccinated and boosted individuals also get infected and hospitalized and die. Between Jan 2 and Jul 2, 2021, more than 60% of UK patients whose death “involved COVID” had received at least one dose of vaccine (tinyurl.com/2p89d5sw). Nearly 60% of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Israel are fully vaccinated (tinyurl.com/4z7wzv8y).
Meanwhile, the Biden regime is rationing monoclonal antibodies, as the attack on physicians who are keeping patients out of the hospital with early off-label or off-Protocol treatment continues relentlessly from medical boards and others.
While Biden promotes boosters for Omicron, Daniel Horowitz calculates that the shots have a minus 87% efficacy against the new variant: Data from the Robert Koch Institute shows that only 4% of the Omicron cases in Germany are coming from the 30% who are unvaccinated (tinyurl.com/2p9k3wbk).
Excess Mortality
Statistics on deaths with or from COVID-19 are corrupted; all-cause mortality may be the only reliable measure. This should surely be decreasing if the vaccine rollouts were effective. But, the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the excess mortality (tinyurl.com/3wj389jv). The all-cause mortality rate in the U.S., UK, and Germany, which had previously been back to nearly normal, has increased in all age groups since the vaccine rollout, except in mostly-still-unvaccinated 0–14 year-olds (tinyurl.com/yef9hmrb). OneAmerica states that the death rate among working-age people is up a stunning 40% from pre-pandemic levels, “the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business,” and disability claims are also up (tinyurl.com/bdzjz5ur).
Time to fire the generals and rethink strategy.
False Positive Tests
All diagnostic tests have false positives; the rate depends on the prevalence of disease. (tinyurl.com/53x849cm). This is an argument against mass screening of asymptomatic populations for anything, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Healthy individuals might be subjected to unnecessary invasive testing or treatment with toxic drugs.
Consider a test with a sensitivity of 100% (all affected individuals test positive), and a specificity of 90% (90% are true negatives or TN). If 10% of a tested population of 1,000 has the disease, then 90% or 810 of the 900 nondiseased patients will have a TN test, and 90 will have a false positive (FP). Then the predictive value of a positive test = TP/(TP + FP) = 100/(190) = 53%. Or, 47% of the positive tests will be false positives.
If the prevalence of disease is only 1%, then about 90% of the positive tests are false positives, even with a very good test. A PCR test with a Ct of 37, as many health departments are using, has a very poor specificity to start with.
Thus, if we are testing asymptomatic people who might have been within 6 ft of an infected person, or worse, of an uninfected person with a positive test, we will have an endless “pandemic” of positive PCR tests, causing the ruin of countless lives and livelihoods for no benefit whatsoever.
VAERS Ignored
The admittedly flawed Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (https://vaers.hhs.gov/), an official government data base established in 1990 and co-managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA), is far behind in entering data. As of Dec 31, 2021, there were 21,382 deaths, 36,758 permanent disabilities, and 23,713 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis in more than 1 million adverse reaction reports (openvaers.com/covid-data). Although a causal relationship cannot be proved, the total vastly exceeds the cumulative number of reports for all other vaccines and years since 1990 combined, with the same reporting process.
The degree of under-reporting is disputed. Some calculate that there could be 40 times as many events as reports (vaersanalysis.info).
In the Jan 7 oral argument on Biden vaccine mandates before the U.S. Supreme Court (https://tinyurl.com/yckas47w), these facts were not considered, although the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) stated that Justices should ask government attorneys about VAERS data (https://tinyurl.com/4bsf79rn). The legal issues before the Court involve whether the President through the administrative state has the authority impose vaccines on workers, not the wisdom of that policy. Yet questions by some of the Justices showed that they were considering policy questions, based on misinformation. For example, Justice Sotomayor stated that 100,000 children are hospitalized with COVID and many are on ventilators, (tinyurl.com/mwyxxxp6), when the actual number of hospitalized children is 3,300 and most are being treated for another disease (https://tinyurl.com/yc437yjb).
Justices may accept the argument asserted in the American Medical Association’s amicus in favor of upholding the mandates that the vaccines are the only way to end the pandemic (tinyurl.com/3nnphyzy), with no mention of vaccine harms or constitutional or human rights.
Causal Impact of COVID-19 Vaccines
Correlations can be suggestive but cannot prove causation. Using data from 145 countries in Our World in Data (OWID), Ph.D. student Kyle Beattie conducted a Bayesian causal analysis on two dependent variables that have been measured cumulatively throughout the pandemic: total deaths per million and total cases per million. “Results indicate that the treatment (vaccine administration) has a strong and statistically significant propensity to causally increase the values in [both variables] over and above what would have been expected with no treatment.” The average impact of vaccination is to increase total deaths per million by 463% and total cases per million by 261%. The computer coding is published (https://tinyurl.com/5fd6vp44).
Steven Kirsch notes that seven other studies, all done independently, reached the same conclusion: “the more you vaccinate, the worse things get” (https://tinyurl.com/43f3zv6y).
Paul Alexander, Ph.D., examines the UK Health Security Agency first COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report of 2022, and concludes that “taking the vaccine escalates your risk of getting infected (negative efficacy)” and, worse, that the vaccine damages natural immunity (https://tinyurl.com/2p8zzs4v).
Insurers’ Statistics
Insurance actuaries must use reliable statistics to calculate risks and premiums. The huge increase in death rates is “consistent across every player in that business,” according to Scott Davison, CEO of the OneAmerica insurance company. “Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three sigma or 200-year catastrophe would be a 10 percent increase over pre-pandemic levels.” Davison said. “So, 40 percent is just unheard of (https://tinyurl.com/4emaph38).
Most claims do not list COVID-19 as the cause of deaths. Joel Hirschhorn writes that these could be collateral deaths from government policies, or vaccine deaths (tinyurl.com/2p8r8vzh).
No Stopping Condition
After the death of Jacob Clynick, a 13-year-old who died of cardiac arrest 3 days after his second Pfizer shot, Steve Kirsch e-mailed CDC officials to ask how many kids had to die before the vaccine campaign would be stopped. He received no reply (https://tinyurl.com/mry2p7hs). You might want to ask your public health officials and your doctor the same question.
Asymptomatic Myocarditis
We are already seeing cases of symptomatic myocarditis in young men and boys, and star athletes collapsing on the field in unprecedented numbers, probably never to play again—if they survive. Doctors are aware of the need to take chest discomfort in vaccinated children seriously. But is there asymptomatic inflammation that could lead to long-term damage? According to pediatric cardiologist Kirk Milhoan, M.D., Ph.D., almost half of big-10 athletes show asymptomatic myocarditis post-vaccination on an MRI of the heart. We could see children dying just from playing on the field (tinyurl.com/2p864kuy). Incidence increases with each injection. Screening with cardiac enzymes and inflammatory markers was not part of clinical trials.