Civil Defense Perspectives Vol. 37 #6
The ground will be frozen in Ukraine in mid-December. This means that recently mobilized Russian troops will soon, some say, be able to mount a major offensive.
Does this portend nuclear war? Why this concern about a conventional conflict between two nations, only one of which has nuclear weapons, sparking worldwide nuclear war?
There are two narratives about the war. According to my email feed from Quora, Russians are hopelessly inept and ill-equipped, and sure to suffer a humiliating defeat. According to Alexander Mercouris and the Duran, on Youtube.com and other channels, Gonzalo Lira (tinyurl.com/2p96nzx9), and Will Schryver (tinyurl.com/39jmd5jh), among others, the Ukrainian military is being annihilated, and collapse is prevented only by Western aid.
For Russia, defeat by NATO, especially with Ukraine joining NATO and the EU, is an existential threat that might be seen as justifying resort to nuclear weapons. And a strong, sovereign Russia might be seen as an existential threat to globalists.
Two recent events might be viewed as deliberate provocations. Missiles landed in Poland and killed two farmers. Initially some blamed Russia for attacking a NATO member, but the missiles were Ukrainian and were launched from Ukraine. Did someone hope to draw NATO into the conflict directly (https://tinyurl.com/3uye5zkm)? Some analysts say that NATO could not win a conventional war with Russia (CDP May 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3pjs7cj9).
Two air bases deep within Russia were struck by what are believed to be Soviet-era drones: Ryazan, a few hours’ drive from Moscow, and Engels air base, home to Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. The Tupolev long-range bombers at Engels form a big part of Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal, similar to U.S. B-52s (https://tinyurl.com/mpz6nf9).
Americans have often been told that in a nuclear war there are no winners. But the destruction of the economy, infrastructure, and millions of lives in the “superpowers” might be considered victory by globalists who see the U.S. and possibly Russia as impediments to totalitarian one-world government. They know that all the nukes in the world cannot destroy the planet or turn it into a radioactive wasteland. The idea that “radiation is forever” (by definition, it decays!) and that “there is no safe dose” are myths though widely believed. Nuclear war may be unthinkable to a majority—but not to those who could launch it.
Federal Disaster Response: It’s D.I.Y.
The scientists who researched and tested measures to protect against nuclear weapons effects at the dawn of the atomic age believed that the government would never develop an adequate civil defense program. So, even though they worked for the U.S. Department of Energy, they focused on measures that could be implemented by ordinary Americans. Both the methods themselves and the written instructions were field-tested by lay people.
The actual construction of expedient shelters, under the supervision of Cresson Kearny, was done at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine in 1986, and video is available (tinyurl.com/4by72sny). Most Americans would not be able to implement this today, even if they had adequate warning. They don’t live in a place where it would be practical or permissible to dig a hole. They might, however, be able to make a core shelter, as Kearny demonstrated (tinyurl.com/26k4er9b). Or the best available shelter might be a basement or near the center of a building—in many cases adequate to prevent receiving a lethal dose. The key question is when it would be safe to leave.
Our government officials are unable to answer that question.
The Nuclear Was Survival Skills plan (oism.org/nwss) is the default government-supported plan for the vast majority of Americans not included in Continuity of Government operations or wealthy enough to have a huge bunker.
Cresson Kearny’s book Nuclear War Survival Skills, first published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 1979, had detailed instructions for making an electroscope radiation monitor, which can be as accurate as instruments costing thousands of dollars, if meticulously made. The plan was for newspapers to print them in a developing crisis. I remember clipping instructions for a crude electroscope from Parade magazine during the Cold War.
Like the rest of government, emergency management has been corrupted. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) used to be called the Office of Civil Defense. By degrees, its mission was changed from protecting the public from the effects of nuclear weapons to protecting the public from Mother Nature and goblins in the closet, states Stephen Jones, special projects director for Physicians for Civil Defense.
Americans need to know that government at all levels lacks the ability to monitor fallout radiation. In the rare casein which officials have instruments, they do not have personnel trained to use them. “New York’s uncontested PSA of ‘Get Inside, Stay Inside, Stay Tuned’ (https://tinyurl.com/4k6ay65j) shows both the government’s ignorance and the success of enemy propaganda against the American people,” states Jones.
“Emergency Management—federal, state, county, and municipal—are incentivized NOT to prepare for disasters,” Jones explains. “If disaster strikes and there is great loss of life and or property, Emergency Management receives huge grants, massive overtime pay, and great publicity. If effective disaster plans are in place such that no loss of life and little property damage occurs, no grant money or overtime wages are forthcoming.” Thus, preparedness is your job.
See November 2022 DDP Newsletter (https://tinyurl.com/yc78ckzn) for more information on radiation monitoring.
NWSS is an invaluable resource for surviving disasters of all types, which have consequences like those after nuclear war. There is information on water purification, sanitation, emergency lighting, affordable food storage, fires and carbon monoxide, ventilation, improvised winter clothing, and minimum pre-crisis preparations. The updated DDP medical kit can be downloaded here: (ddponline.org/pdf-medical-kit-download-page).
Cresson Kearny asked whether people deserved to survive if they couldn’t even be bothered to make a fallout meter.
Once the need becomes obvious, radmonitors.com, http://ki4u.com/, and other sources will be sold out.
Like with past warnings, this crisis might pass without disaster. Don’t panic, but get this insurance while you still can.
How Would a Nuclear War Play Out?
Imagine that you are a general or in charge of the nuclear arsenal in your country. Remember that when World War 2 began we had a submarine fleet of about 300 boats. While they were equipped with state-of-the-art torpedoes they initially had a 70% failure rate of some 1,400 torpedoes fired, and some boats had a 90% failure rate, Stephen Jones points out.
Consider Russia and the U.S. with mostly aging arsenals. Our bomber fleet was largely built in the 1950s and is vulnerable to air defenses. How many of the missiles carrying nukes will actually work? Solid-fueled missiles (like U.S. SLBMs), if there is a crack in the fuel block, could blow up mid-flight. And how many of the warheads will be duds or nearly duds? (See below.)
An all-out nuclear attack on the U.S. would likely start with an electromagnetic pulse (cars stalling, radio broadcasts going silent), followed by small nukes launched from submarines off our coasts. Costal cities would have virtually no warning while cities in our heartland might have five-to-ten minutes warning. One life-saving warning could be loud booms and lights in the distance. What may look like a shooting star in the daylight could be a re-entry vehicle. An intense brilliant light or flash is the last warning, such that if you don’t immediately drop and cover you will be killed or badly injured.
A nuclear war would not be over in an hour. Misses and duds mean that millions of people will get a chance to take cover and survive if they know simple things to do. Over the next few days, the enemy may send bombers to mop up.
Note that air-burst nuclear warheads do not produce much fallout. Deposits that look like sand mean you may need to stay inside for as much as two weeks, Jones states; if it looks like ash or dust, a few days are likely enough.
The aftermath might be impossible to survive in a city. People might need to escape by walking. Jones recalls that the North Vietnamese won the war by using bicycles to transport material to the front. If you remove the pedals from a bike and replace the seat with a pole, several hundred pounds can be loaded onto the bike that you walk out with.
Stockpile Stewardship
The U.S has conducted no nuclear testing, even underground, since the early 1990s. The only recent known tests have been by North Korea. Being radioactive, warheads deteriorate. According to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the W78 thermonuclear warhead atop Minuteman ICBMs is nearing the end of its functional lifespan after 37 years in service. The W87-1 program slated to replace it will require all new manufacturing of components, which has not been done since 1992. Its function will be assessed by 3D simulations with supercomputers; the El Capitan, 50 times faster than the Sierra system now in use, should be ready by 2023 (https://tinyurl.com/bdheyvmt).
The W87-1 modification program will support deployment of the U.S. Air Force’s Ground Based Strategic Deterrent by 2030 (https://tinyurl.com/mr44kp7s).
Meanwhile, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion are “core elements of our values.” Further evolution is likely: “Currently, the United States government Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) reporting requirements use the gender categories of male and female. We are currently reviewing the way we collect and display data” (https://tinyurl.com/bdf9mv2s).
Put out Fires
Essential immediate post-attack work includes extinguishing fires. People following the “Get Inside, Stay Inside” advice might burn to death. Some cities might be subject to firestorms, Jones warns. Everything is knocked down, smolders for about 20 minutes, and can then burst into flame.
Evidence and Simulations
John Kerry, U.S. special envoy for climate, warned of “massive emissions consequences” from a Russian war against Ukraine, which he also said would be a distraction from work on climate change. Nevertheless, he added, “I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate” (https://tinyurl.com/e9aux8jk).
Although he was Secretary of State when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, he apparently was less concerned about the consequences of war for Ukrainians. He has faith in computer climate models, despite their dismal record for accuracy, but not in satellite evidence of Russian troop movements, global temperature measurements showing that atmospheric warming is not dangerous, or photographs showing greening of the earth from increased CO2 fertilization (https://tinyurl.com/e9aux8jk).
Kerry told the BBC that he hopes Mr. Putin realizes northern Russia is thawing, “and his infrastructure is at risk, and the people of Russia are at risk” (https://tinyurl.com/3n5dk2rd).
NATO Involvement
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate into a “major” conflict, according to an article just published in Newsweek. Still, he expressed confidence that NATO “will avoid that” due to its increased presence in Eastern Europe, having enhanced the number of troops in several countries including Poland, Estonia, and Hungary “to deter attacks against NATO” (tinyurl.com/27rj9pyv).
From a Russian viewpoint, NATO involvement is massive. “Indian Commissar” who has a Communist flag in his avatar and often posts in Russian, writes: “I really hope, Russian people realize that West (under Satanic control) is NOT satisfied with the collapse/disintegration of the USSR and that they (West) want to finish Hitler’s unfinished business to completely destroy Russia” (https://tinyurl.com/2dxexwxx).
He states that up to 100,000 U.S. special forces and regular military troops are in countries bordering Ukraine. A video by Face the Nation shows a live-fire exercise that is not against a hypothetical, but a real enemy (https://tinyurl.com/2fxz8whf).
Willian Schryver wrote on July 11 that NATO is “playing with fire.” He states that U.S. intelligence operatives and special forces have been deployed in Ukraine throughout the ongoing war and are directly involved in attacking Russian targets. They provide “hands-on” training and likely direct operation of U.S. advanced weaponry, which has resulted in the killing of Russian field commanders, possibly the sinking of the Moskva, and attacks on Russian-sympathizing civilians.
“What the Russians will do in response to this direct U.S. involvement in the war—and when—remains to be seen.” Shooting down unmanned, and then manned ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) assets over the “theater” including the Baltic Sea is one possibility (tinyurl.com/2p8sm283).
