Of course, we all hope that nuclear weapons are never used, but what if they are?
In the 536 comments to an article in the Daily Mail about how to build a shelter for £72, almost all said they wanted to die immediately.
In Prague, people are prepared to live. The photograph at this link shows the blast doors in a Prague metro station. This is part of Prague’s Metro Protection System (Ochranny System Metra, or OSM), built in 1974, a network of hardened shelters designed to safeguard people during a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack, and to isolate sections of the metro in the event of a major flood.
The system could shelter 320,00 people for 72 hours. Tests are done every night to assure readiness. Calls to decommission the system because of cost have fallen silent since the onset of hostilities in Ukraine.
As the Daily Mail article shows, civil defense in the U.S. and UK is do it yourself. The information provided on expedient shelter building is accurate and tested. Even a couple of elderly women were able to construct a shelter, as videotaped in Oregon.
Commenters did make some valid points: Many city dwellers will not have enough land even for a small shelter, or the government might punish them for digging a hole without an unobtainable permit. Also, these shelters are not permanent.
However, they evidently believe many myths, e.g., that everyone will die of radiation sickness if not instantly vaporized.
Most people will NOT be close enough to Ground Zero to be instantly killed. Getting under a desk, or just lying down, will not help you if you are—but it can save you from being killed or seriously injured by the blast wave even if your only warning is a blinding flash, if you are outside the zone of complete destruction. Fallout is easily visible and rapidly decays. Putting mass (e.g., brick walls, sandbags, water) and distance between yourself and the fallout for a few days would likely be adequate. We are taught to panic over tiny radiation doses that might even be beneficial. This would prevent necessary immediate work.
The aftermath of war is terrible. Americans might end up with living conditions as bad as much of the world now endures. They would have to work very hard. They might end up picking up rubble with their bare hands as German women did after WW II. And what about Hiroshima? It is now a thriving modern metropolis.
For governments to engage in “nuclear chicken” is evil and insane. But we all have duties to our posterity and our community and must not abandon them.
Typical radiation doses (SIRAD RADTriage™ cards are sold out, but safe/not safe “Oh Shucks! Meters” using that technology are still available at www.ki4u.com)
Civil Defense Perspectives November 2024 (vol. 39 #6)
The current paradigm in the nuclear age is deterrence based on the idea that a nuclear attack by one superpower would be met with an overwhelming nuclear counterattack such that both the attacker and the defender would be annihilated: MAD—Mutual Assured Destruction. The term was coined by an opponent of Defense Secretary Robert McNamara’s goal of maintaining destructive parity as a guide to U.S. defense decisions, according to Britannica (https://tinyurl.com/2u42ctk3).
The Dr. Strangelove idea that “pushing the button” means the end of human civilization or life is the assumption of many popular books and movies. A motive for nuclear proliferation seems to be that having a few bombs is insurance against invasion, as well as an existential threat to adversaries. Hence, Israel’s focus on stopping the Iranian nuclear program. (One must ask whether nuclear-armed Israel could save itself from destruction by Iran’s conventional arms—the “Samson option” is self-destruction—short of massive U.S. intervention.)
But what if the Old Paradigm, even if it still rules, has lost its ability to sustain belief, asks Ianto Watt, author of The Barbarian Bible: The True History of Man Since the Fall of Troy, in an essay posted by William Briggs (https://tinyurl.com/msz4axt6).
When scheduled for a gunfight, you need three things, Watts states: a gun (preferably loaded), a quick draw, and a true aim.
Does the West have these? How about Russia?
Watts writes that we are “witnessing two poker players engaged in a very high-stakes game of winner-take-all. At least one of them is, by definition, bluffing. And as the cards are shown, the bluffer jumps up, and claims his opponent is cheating…. Will the bluffer challenge the winner to a gunfight?”
In the escalating game of nuclear chicken in Ukraine, Russia has calmly matched every raise. Biden’s latest raise was permission for Ukraine to use longer-range Western missiles to throw onto actual Russian turf—which can theoretically reach Moscow and can carry a nuclear warhead. Which you cannot discern until they land. Biden is out of ammo for his gun, except for the “Big Red Round.” He wants to provoke the Bear into doing something to justify firing it before Trump (who might fold) comes to power. He seems to think that the Bear won’t retaliate massively.
But what if, as Watts thinks, the Bear has a new weapon for a New Paradigm, and that the West can no longer rule the world by fear? A weapon that is faster, more accurate, and can deliver equal or greater devastation without radioactive results? What would become of the rule of the Military Industrial Complex oligarchy?
The Physics of Energy
It appears that the new weapons system called “the Grove,” as shown in the Russian test of Oreshnik (the hazelnut tree) can not only deter but disarm. This was reportedly demonstrated by the strike at the Yuzhmash Complex in Ukraine, the former production center of most of the USSR’s nuclear weapons production, and the site where the last of the Ukrainian war production facilities currently are (were?) located.
As Watts explained, the Old Paradigm is ruled by E = mc2. The New Paradigm uses kinetic energy, E = mass/2 × velocity2.
The Grove utilizes an intermediate range missile that can reportedly carry up to 36 sub-munition warheads, each independently targetable. These kinetic kill-vehicles, traveling at hypersonic speed, are claimed to be able to penetrate even to the deepest bunkers (as Yuzhmash was) and destroy them by the shock wave, Watts states. Putin stated that the temperature of the striking elements reaches 4,000 °C., vs. 5,500–6,000 °C at the surface of the sun (https://tinyurl.com/3b9cnmsb). Reuters provides a YouTube description while downplaying its significance (https://tinyurl.com/27pm72ue).
Ronald Reagan, with Brilliant Pebbles kinetic kill-vehicles targeting intercontinental ballistic missiles in their boost phase from space, hoped to make nuclear weapons obsolete. The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was ridiculed and died, but the nuclear hegemony may yet end.
Western hegemony also depended on the presumption that the Empire’s strategic (nuclear) might was matched at the tactical (conventional) level of war. This was sustained by never going head to head against an adversary that could challenge U.S. air superiority. But now NATO faces an adversary with formidable air defenses. Against swarms of increasingly sophisticated, cheap drones, might our awesome manned fighter jets be obsolete? Has the West been surpassed in electronic warfare? Could an adversary such as the Houthis overwhelm the defenses of a carrier strike group, so that aircraft carriers must stay out of range?
Why Escalate?
As explained in the November 2024 DDP Newsletter, powerful officials would be willing to provoke war. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) elaborates: “This war’s about money…The richest country in all of Europe for rare earth minerals is Ukraine, two to seven trillion dollars worth… It’s in our interest to make sure Russia doesn’t take over the place” (tinyurl.com/3vu7t928).
According to former British diplomat Alistair Crooke, the escalation has been led by the UK. UK foreign secretary and former prime minister David Cameron said he thought British policy on Ukraine was “fixed”: to press the Americans to keep sending their money to Ukraine, and…to compel the Americans to escalate the war between Ukraine and Russia” (https://tinyurl.com/492r3tcs).
Why should the British lead? Frank Wright suggests that along with NATO itself and the other liberal-global governments in Europe, the UK is heavily invested in the war in Ukraine. It has propagandized its people to accept higher costs and lower living standards to maintain its support. When the war stops, the real problems for the liberal globalists begin. A Russian victory will shed daylight upon the murky financial dealings under the Zelensky regime in Ukraine. A true cost analysis of this war would destroy many political careers and governments.
The New York Times described the brinkmanship as a series of “tit for tat” strikes, saying only that Russia responded with a “test-fired intermediate-range missile.” Crooke, however, said the new Russian system had “checkmated” the Western escalation, of which the last step is nuclear (https://tinyurl.com/2ps6s9r5).
Stephen Jones, R.I.P.
Our intrepid civil defense warrior and advocate Stephen Jones died after a valiant struggle against cancer. Until the very end, he was mailing sample “Oh Shucks! Meters” to fire departments, offering to donate these expedient safe/not safe radiation detectors to first responders. Few requested them. The OSM uses the same chemical detector as the RADTriage™ card.
Steve predicted that we would soon be at the brink of nuclear war, and when Americans awakened to the danger, suitable instruments would be sold out. He made Herculean efforts to produce enough OSMs to equip first responders. They are now offered for $25 each at ki4u.com/products1.php—discounted for quantities > 100. On Nov 30, the site had registered more than 6,000 visitors from all continents except Antarctica.
Steve’s presentation on “Surviving World War III” at the 2023 meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJld5ljRyys&t=791s) included a demo of a transport bicycle among much invaluable information.
Steve’s unparalleled experience with the home-makeable Kearny Fallout Meter (he and his children made thousands) is included in a 2006 interview (https://tinyurl.com/y42ke8ah). The KFM, which is very accurate if properly made, is likely to be the only detector the average American could get.
In 2008, Stephen Jones, Kevin McDonald, and Logan Connor made the Arizona Nuclear War Survival Skills tour. They drove 5,000 miles, visited about 145 fire stations, photographed more than 400 firefighters with NWSS, sent press releases to 50 newspapers, and did personal interviews with 20 reporters (https://tinyurl.com/4f8e3bfn). Videos are found at https://www.youtube.com/user/roadman911. The training sessions for firefighters are especially valuable.
Fire stations along Steve’s cross-continental bicycle ride, promoting civil defense from Martha’s Vineyard to California, also received information. Steve on his “dragoncycle” visited Tucson briefly (https://tinyurl.com/64chnwxh).
If a nuclear device is detonated, many thousands may be saved because of Steve’s work.
Empty Quiver
In December 2023, Will Schryver wrote: “one of the most strategically significant battlefield humiliations inflicted upon NATO over the course of the Ukraine War [is] the progressively comprehensive defeat of their precision-guided strike missile inventory.” This includes ATACMS and Storm Shadow.
“The Russians have demonstrated that they can routinely shoot down ANY species of strike missile the US/NATO can field against them—not all of them all of the time, but most of them most of the time” (https://tinyurl.com/yyrhexpw).
He writes that the U.S. is at least a decade away from developing comparable capability, and that this fact “alters the war-fighting calculus that has been assumed for many decades.”
The U.S. also lags Russia by decades in hypersonic (velocity > Mach 5) technology. In June 2023 Putin claimed that about half of all Russian strategic missile divisions have been rearmed with hypersonic warheads (https://tinyurl.com/4nmbxc3j).
According to the NY Times, “From Rockets to Ball Bearings, Pentagon Struggles to Feed War Machine.” To replace the weapons sent to Ukraine would take 5–13 years with current industrial capacity (https://tinyurl.com/3sepd2cz).
Russian Civilian War Preparedness
Russia has begun producing mobile bomb shelters that can protect against shock waves, nuclear radiation, falling debris, dangerous chemicals, and fires. They resemble reinforced shipping containers and can easily be transported by truck (https://tinyurl.com/57czyukn).
In February 2023, the Kremlin ordered local authorities to upgrade crumbling Soviet-era bunkers, reinforced cellars, and other safe hideouts. Local authorities appear to be spending hundreds of millions of rubles to again make them fit for habitation. The authorities in Kazan, on the Volga River, said that about 30% of the city’s bomb shelters were not in a fit state to house people. Instead, officials said they would determine whether the city’s metro system could serve as a bomb shelter.
RT.com has not recently reported on the Russian shelter program, but does carry articles on NATO countries. German citizens are expected to build their own—there are only 579 functional bomb shelters in Germany (https://tinyurl.com/ybduvfyp). Polish officials ran an exercise to test the reliability of emergency water and power supplies in Warsaw’s shelters. With a population of around 1.8 million, the city could accommodate 3 million people in the subway system, underground parking garages, and other designated shelter spaces, although work is needed to bring all of them up to standard. Emergency drills in Warsaw came less than two days after President Andrzej Duda called for “decolonizing Russia by breaking it up into many smaller countries.” Duda has also proposed that Poland should host U.S. nuclear weapons (https://tinyurl.com/37j8ebua).
Maybe Just a Bluff?
Scott Ritter states that the physics surrounding the effects of the Oreshnik payload remain confusing even to experts. Russian experts have spoken about advances in material sciences associated with the performance of materials at hypersonic speed, which may alter the physics in question. Putin claims that “everything that is in the epicenter of the explosion is divided into fractions, into elementary particles, everything turns essentially into dust.” But how much of an area does the “epicenter of the explosion” encompass? Ukraine has been surprisingly reticent about documenting its claims that the Oreshnik caused “minimal damage.” The mindset that Oreshnik is “all bark, but little or no bite” has resulted in Ukraine, “with the blessing and assistance of its US and UK masters, continuing to strike targets in the Kursk region using ATACMS missiles” (tinyurl.com/yu8cvvef).
Russian Economy Surpasses Germany
Despite heavy U.S. sanctions, the Russian economy, based on purchasing power parity (PPP), has surpassed both Germany and Japan, according to the International Monetary fund (IMF) (https://tinyurl.com/34py4pnh). This makes it the world’s fourth largest economy, after China, U.S., and India. The Russian economy is now 15% larger than Germany’s, and while Russia is experiencing a boom, Germany’s economy is in free fall. Volkswagen is thinking of closing plants for the first time in its 87-year history (https://tinyurl.com/u5rbcmuf). Steep energy prices, rundown infrastructure, a heavy bureaucratic burden, and competition from China are cited as reasons for the manufacturing sector’s “formidable crash” (tinyurl.com/32j253b2).
