2014: Year of Hottest Rhetoric, Not of Hottest Climate

TUCSON, Ariz. The state of the Climate 2014 report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the American Meteorological Society “delves into the details of already reported record-smashing warmth globally  in 2014,” according to the Associated Press.

The report actually states that there is an estimated 48% probability that 2014 is the warmest over the 1880 – 2014 period in the NOAA record. (NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt said the probability was 38%.) Continue reading “2014: Year of Hottest Rhetoric, Not of Hottest Climate”

Fireworks, Coal-Fired Electricity Not a ‘Medical Emergency,’ States Physicians for Civil Defense

 

Pope Francis, President Obama, medical organizations, and the prestigious British medical journal The Lancet are all demanding “action” to prevent disastrous public health effects from “climate change.”

The most important action is the Obama Administration’s war on coal, the biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions, and the fuel for some 40 percent of the nation’s electricity generation. Since the decrease in carbon dioxide emissions could have, at most, a negligible effect on global temperature, according to current computer models, that is not a factor in the hypothetical number of “lives saved.”

The public health rationale for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) draconian “mercury rule” is the predicted decrease in deaths from respiratory ailments. The actual suspect for asthma deaths is not the mercury but the small (ultrafine) particulates (dust) also present in the emissions. These are called PM2.5s because they are less than 2.5 microns (0.0025 millimeters) in diameter.

Based on highly speculative calculations, and common statistical fallacies, the EPA has testified in Congress that PM2.5s can kill instantly in any dose.

If this is true, there is serious danger from fireworks. Air quality after the Fourth of July displays is about 40 percent worse than on normal days, and particulates can be 400 percent higher in Washington, D.C., between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. on July 4. The study that measured the PM2.5s did not look for public health effects. EPA spokesmen commented that they wanted everyone to enjoy the fireworks, although they recommended that sensitive persons should watch from upwind.

“We do not expect a surge in emergency room visits by people wheezing because of fireworks,” stated Jane Orient. M.D., president of Physicians for Civil Defense. “And we want them to continue to enjoy the benefits of reliable, affordable electricity, including air conditioning.”

“The public health effects from job loss, power blackouts, and the economy-wide price increases from increased electricity prices would be immediate, severe, and real,” she said, “in contrast to the remote, tiny, and fanciful benefits of EPA coal rules.”

“If the EPA believed its own pronouncements, it would immediately ban fireworks.”

Physicians for Civil Defense distributes information to help to save lives in the event of war or other disaster.

Unholy Fire

Civil Defense Perspectives May 2015 Volume 31 No. 4

The sharpest dividing line between hominids and all other organisms is the use of fire, wrote the late Isaac Asimov (A Choice of Catastrophes). There is evidence of fire having been used by Homo erectus in caves in China half a million years ago. A method of starting a fire from scratch was probably discovered by a member of Homo sapiens around 7000 B.C.

In Greek mythology, the Titan god Prometheus stole fire, which Zeus had withheld from men, and delivered it to mortals. In retaliation, Zeus ordered the creation of Pandora, the first woman, to bring misfortune to the house of man. Continue reading “Unholy Fire”

Scandalous Civil Defense

Civil Defense Perspectives March 2015 Volume 31 No. 3

The U.S. long ago adopted the nonstrategy of deliberately leaving its citizens completely unprotected against nuclear weapons. For prevention it has depended on the concept of nuclear deterrence. This depends on the enemy being rational, concerned about its own survival, and identifiable—and the willingness and ability of the U.S. to utterly crush the foe.

Nuclear proliferation, unilateral U.S. disarmament, technological change, and the rise of many enemies willing or eager to die in the process of killing infidels mean that nuclear deterrence is much less reliable—or even impossible. Continue reading “Scandalous Civil Defense”

A Choice of Catastrophes

Civil Defense Perspectives January 2015 Volume 31 No. 2

All the calls for people to work to “Save the Planet” suggest that the Planet could have eternal life if only we banished the demon carbon dioxide to the nether regions of Earth. But of course the Planet had a beginning, and it will have an end. For perspective it is worth reviewing the late Isaac Asimov’s 1979 book A Choice of Catastrophes: the Disasters That Threaten Our World.

The heat death of the entire universe would seem to be an inevitable, inexorable end to everything not already destroyed.  The Earth could be rendered uninhabitable by collision with an asteroid, or by changes in the sun as it became a red giant and eventually a white dwarf. But on a smaller than astronomic scale, the force with the greatest likely impact is climate.  There have always been droughts, and floods, and storms, but could the Earth become a planetary Sahara or a planetary Greenland? The popular press in the 1970s was filled with threats of global cooling, which were endorsed by all major scientific organizations (http://tinyurl.com/q7pkmp4). Continue reading “A Choice of Catastrophes”

97 Percent Wrong

Civil Defense Perspectives November  2014 Volume 31 No. 1

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may claim 95% confidence in its predictions, but 111 (97%) of 114 runs of climate models predicted temperature changes greater than observed (TWTW 8/23/14). After a 35-year simulation, models over-predicted actual temperatures by 200% to 750%. Would a 300-year simulation fare better (TWTW 11/8/14)?

Previously, the climate-research establishment denied the existence of a pause in the inexorable warming, but admitted that it would invalidate their theories. A 2008 report from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said: “The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 years or more” (Matt Ridley, WSJ 9/4/14). Continue reading “97 Percent Wrong”

U.S. House Vote Could Lead to War with Russia

In a resolution passed today in the U.S. House of Representatives, by a vote of 411 to 10, the U.S. effectively “declared Cold War on Russia,” according to a statement by Daniel McAdams, executive director at the Ron Paul Institute, to RT [Russia Today].

McAdams said it was also a declaration of war for Kiev against Donetsk and Lugansk, two new self-proclaimed states in eastern Ukraine. “This is a green light for the [NATO-backed] Poroshenko government to resume military actions against the “separatists” in Eastern Ukraine.”  Continue reading “U.S. House Vote Could Lead to War with Russia”

Emerging Viral Disease

Civil Defense Perspectives September 2014 Volume 30 No. 6
[published November 2014]

In March, a devastating Ebola epidemic was building up in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, and was belatedly recognized as an international emergency by the World Health Organization only on August 6. At the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting in Knoxville, Tenn., July 25-28, Steven Hatfill, M.D., gave an in-depth presentation on Ebola and other emerging diseases (http://tinyurl.com/mb3ftzo).

Some key take-home lessons: Continue reading “Emerging Viral Disease”

Ebola Hearings Miss Main Point, States Physicians for Civil Defense

Tucson, Ariz. In Oct 16 hearings before the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, no one asked why the deadly Ebola virus is no longer being treated as a “level 4” threat.

Scientists who work with Ebola do it only in BSL-4 (biosafety level-4) laboratories, in which they are protected against breathing potentially contaminated air and have complete skin surface protection by means of an encapsulating “space suit.” Entry into a BSL-4 facility is only through an air lock. Before leaving a BSL-4 facility, the outside of the “space suit” is sprayed with a mist of decontamination solution for several minutes. All equipment that enters the BSL-4 area is sterilized with paraformaldehyde gas before it is removed. All other materials are bagged and immediately incinerated on site.

One researcher who had an accidental needlestick was immediately isolated in a BSL-4 medical facility called “the Slammer,” suitable for intensive care by practiced physicians and nurses from Walter Reed, wearing encapsulating suits. BSL-4 isolation is for 21 days as described by David Quammen in his book Spillover.

Hundreds of workers in Africa, and now two in the U.S., have caught the disease when using lower levels of protection. Yet the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) asserts that every hospital in the U.S. can be adequately prepared, and told a nurse who had been exposed that it was fine to take a commercial flight.

Some congressmen complained that the CDC did not have enough money. But none mentioned that the special military unit for transporting patients under BSL-4 level conditions, the Aeromedical Isolation and Special Medical Augmentation Response Team (AIT-SMART), which was created in 1978, was dismantled in 2010.

“Having seriously downgraded our response capability, U.S. government agencies are now pretending that the actual threat level is less,” stated Physicians for Civil Defense president Jane Orient, M.D. “Both our military and civilian population are at grave risk.”

Sending in a rapid response team from Atlanta is not a substitute for respirators, negative-pressure isolation rooms, and proper decontamination procedures, she noted. Neither are “tear sheets” instructing air travelers from epidemic areas to check their temperature.

“Official denial of the seriousness of the threat is reckless and irresponsible,” she stated. The disease is now killing 70 percent of its victims in Africa.

Physicians for Civil Defense has long advocated better preparedness for disasters, including natural epidemics and biological warfare.

‘Air Bridge’ for Ebola to U.S. Is Disastrous, States Physicians for Civil Defense

As Ebola cases continue to double every 3 weeks in West Africa, and 10,000 new cases per week are anticipated, the U.S. military is sending some 4,000 troops to help build hospital facilities with about 1,700 total beds. This is part of President Obama’s effort to build an “air bridge” to West Africa.

While at first it was stated that troops would not come into direct contact with Ebola victims, some will be working in mobile laboratory facilities.

Israel will send civilian aid, but declined to send troops, citing fears of bringing infection into Israel.

The CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) claims that the disease can’t be transmitted by asymptomatic persons, that its protective protocols are adequate, and that the disease is not “airborne.”

So far, it is not known how the Dallas nurse caring for the index Ebola patient from Liberia became infected despite protective gear. The World Health Organization states that work with Ebola needs to be done in BSL-4 (biosafety level 4) containment facilities, with self-contained air for breathing and negative pressure to prevent escape of air from the isolation room. Very few hospitals are capable of these precautions.

What kind of protective gear will our troops be using? Doctors without Borders states that personal protective equipment is intolerable for more than 40 minutes.

Will troops be quarantined for 21 days in an Ebola-free location before returning to the U.S. and their families?

“The only sure way to prevent an Ebola epidemic is to keep potentially infected persons out of the area,” stated Physicians for Civil Defense president Jane M Orient, M.D. “We need to restrict entry via the ‘bridges’ we already have, not build additional ones.”

Physicians for Civil Defense has long advocated better preparedness for disasters, including natural epidemics and biological warfare.